George F. Kennan
Raymond Robins
This is the first in the series: “Understanding Russia: The Long Path to Denuclearization”. In this quest we must first know ourselves before we can know Russia in all its complexities. Hopefully this article is a positive step in that direction.
THE KENNAN OBSERVATION
George F Kennan, one of America’s legendary diplomats and historians, authored a two volume study entitled “Soviet-American Relations 1917-1920”. The first volume is “Russia Leaves the War” published in 1953 and the second volume published in 1958 is “The Decision to Intervene”. Most Americans remember Kennan from the famous “The Long Telegram” he sent to the State Department from the American Embassy in Moscow outlining Russian expansionism. To Americans, Kennan has bona fides.
The story takes place in Russia and revolves around a curious group of American businessmen and diplomats active at the time of the German defeat of Russia, the Bolshevik Revolution, and the Intervention of the Western Allies and Japan upon the territorial integrity of Russia. Invasion???
I will summarize what went on to set the scene for the important Kennan observation, prescient to where we are today.
Raymond Robins was one of, if not the most active of American figures in Russia during the Russian Revolution. He had the ear of Lenin and Trotsky. The American ambassador was the standoffish but capable David R. Francis who moved the American Embassy away from Peterburg, north to Volodga to avoid the impending German invasion. Edgar Sissions was a Raymond Robins rival who scurried to the USA to present his anti-Robins case to State. Maddin Summers was the American Council General in Moscow who brilliantly held this disparate group of Americans together until he died just before Robbins recall and departure.
Robins clashed with the above group, especially Sissions, for his thinking that Lenin and Trotsky would accept American assistance against German intrusion, etc. Robins lost the battle of opinions, was summoned to return and went back to America, ending his career after his unsuccessful presentation in front of Congress.
Kennan wrote!!! (and I jumped up when I read it!) “Robins was not a party to that deep-seated trait of American psychology which tends to make an inscrutable devil out of any external adversary, to deny him the quality of common humanity, to expect of him the worst, and to question the value and propriety of occupying one’s self seriously with the study of the adversary’s motives, his point of view, and his personality”. Kennan immediately goes on to quote Robins’ statement in front of Congress when Robins refers to the Russian Revolution. “I believe that when we understand what it is, when we know the facts behind it, when we do not libel it or slander it or do not loose our heads and become its advocates and defenders, and really know what the thing is, then we will serve our country and our time…..”
This study is an attempt to use these two historical figures’ words to help us evaluate our current crisis and lead us out of this path to Nuclear Annihilation.
NOT ONE INCH AND AMERICAN HUBRIS. M.E. SAROTTE
Today’s sad Ukrainian story begins with the famous statement by James Baker that NATO would move “not one inch” towards Russia’s borders if he received support from Gorbachev for German reunification. Critics have said this was not a valid promise. There is nothing in writing. However, recently “Declassified documents show security assurances against NATO expansion to Soviet leaders from Baker, Bush, Genscher, Kohl, Gates, Mitterrand, Thatcher, Hurd, Major, and Woerner” (footnote 1)
Michail Gorbachev discussing German unification with Hans-Dietrich Genscher and Helmut Kohl in Russia, July 15, 1990. Photo: Bundesbildstelle / Presseund Informationsamt der Bundesregierung.
The “One Inch” statement is part of the title of a new book by M.E. Sarotte from Johns Hopkins. (footnote 2) In professor Sarotte’s recent Foreign Affairs article, “Containment Beyond the Cold War: How Washington Lost the Post-Soviet Peace”, (footnote 3) a cogent, well researched study on this important subject.
The article starts in December 1991 during Baker’s meeting with the Russian President; “Yeltsin’s openness was a sign that he wanted a fresh start with the West, one characterized by openness and trust”. Sarotte continues later to state, “By the end of the 1990s that trust had largely vanished”.
“American hubris and tragic decisions by Yeltsin….led to the changed Washington direction that…maintained the United States need to pursue the policy of containment beyond the Cold War”.
Finally, in Istanbul on November 19, 1999, Yeltsin had had enough of Clinton and stated “Bill, this meeting is up…This meeting has gone on too long”
In face of Russian openness and trust, “American hubris” ruled the day. And here we are on the precipice of nuclear war. Some would say it is Realpolitik. John J Mearsheimer would say strong powers take advantage of weak powers. Fair enough, but in addition I contend that the Kennan observation about “the deep-seated trait of American psychology” had reared its ugly head!
NUCLEAR ARMAGEDDON. RAYMOND MCGOVERN
So after the disastrous Clinton-Yeltsin meeting there is a long story of how NATO moved its missiles closer to the Russian border. What is important to understand is the simple fact that this move East coincided with the withdrawal of America from all but one of the Nuclear Arms Limitation Treaties. We are talking about nukes and their delivery systems. Only one treaty remains and it expires in 2026. The Russians have suspended, not withdrawn from that treaty. Because of sanctions they are not allowed to fly to our missile sites to inspect them! Therefore, they will not allow American inspectors to their sites. This one fact alone demonstrates the absolute insanity of our leaders’race to the precipice of hell, let alone the jettisoning of various European Security Agreements subsequent to the Helsinki Accord.
But here is the the ultimate nightmare! The Russians have the new hypersonic missiles. China and the USA are working on the technology and both countries will have it. You can not shoot down these missiles. Their speed is such that you will not be able to know what hit you. Moreover, the holes in the ground in Poland for the old ABM missiles are ready for hypersonic missiles to point at Russia. And the warheads are a whole new technology. This is expensive. Who will pay?
When all the missile treaties were negotiated and finalized thirty years ago, the key CIA expert, Raymond McGovern was intimately involved. Although retired, we are fortunate to hear Ray’s insightful presentation to the UN Security Council on February 21, 2023. Originally scheduled to be about the veracity of Seymour Hersh’s “How America Took Out the Nordstream Pipleine” report, it became more…an impassioned plea to do something about this existential threat to “the children” and humanity. Here is the video of the Security Council presentation, an absolute must watch (footnote 4).
George W. Bush and Donald Trump eliminated these Nuclear Arms Limitation Treaties. Ray McGovern was astonished.
Well Ray could it be the deep-seated trait of American psychology that tends to make an inscrutable devil out of any external adversary?
Ray, at the UN you were suggesting:
“Let’s not dust each other off. Let’s be human here.. Let’s extend our hand to our adversary to see what’s bothering him”.
And then you concluded by singing the old Civil Rights song:
“We got to keep on moving forward. We got to keep on loving our enemies,
We got to keep on loving our enemies,
We got to keep on loving our enemies,
Never turning back,
Never turning back.”
There are Americans that do not have the “that deep-seated trait of American Psychology which tends to make an inscrutable devil out of any external adversary”.
THE MAIDAN….VICTORIA NULAND, SULLIVAN AND THE “VEEP”
Victoria Nuland, a graduate of Brown University, has had a thirty-three year checkered career in foreign service to the United States. Most notably she served as Deputy National Security Adviser to Dick Cheney during the Iraq war, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs under Barak Obama during airstrikes or military raids in at least seven countries: Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen, Somalia and Pakistan. and now she is Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs of the United States for Joe Biden. In the position under Obama and her current position she has held the portfolio for Russia/Ukraine.
Now, as outlined above she has been involved in ALL attacks/invasion by America during her career. In reference to this study, she is the penultimate example of KENNAN’s expression “that deep seated trait of American psychology which tends to make an inscrutable devil out of any external adversary”. Her “inscrutable devil” is Russia.
The scene was The Maidan Square in Kiev, 2014 where there was a protest against the duly-elected government of President Victor Yanukovych . The Americans were blatantly arranging a regeme change. Here is the actual conversation between bulldog Nuland and the American Ambassador to Ukraine! It is a hacked discussion that appeared on YouTube. The following description is from the text of “War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict” by Medea Benjamin and J.S.Davies. (footnote 5)
On February 6, several thousand protesters armed with clubs and shields marched to the parliament building in a show of force that Maiden commandant Parubiy described as a warning to the government to heed their demands.
At the same time, a (now notorious) audio recording appeared on YouTube of U.S Assistant Secretary and U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt handpicking which opposition figures should do what in a post-Yanukovych government. They agreed that Arseny Yetsenyuk, or “Yats” as they called him, was the best choice for prime minister, and that opposition leader Vitali Klitschko and Svoboda’s Tyahnybok and “his guys”would be more useful “on the outside”. They discussed the difficulty of sidelining Klitschko( popular boxer and politician), who had “ been the top dog” in the Maidan.
Nuland and Pyatt decided to present their plans directly to the UN Representative in Ukraine, Robert Sherry, instead of discussing them with EU officials, who favored Klitschko. Nuland said, “that would be great. I think to help glue this thing and to have the UN help glue it, and , you know, fuck the EU.”
Pyatt also talked about outmaneuvering Yanukovych and Russia, and agreed that”…we could land jelly side up on this one if we move fast…we want to get someone with an international personality to come out here and help midwife the thing.”
Nuland replied (verbatim), “So on that piece Geoff, when I wrote the note, [Biden’s now National Security Adviser, but not then, Jake?] Sullivan come back to me VFR [very fucking rapidly?], saying you need the Veep [Vice President Biden?] and I said probably tomorrow for an ata-boy and get the deets[details?] to stick. So Biden’s willing”
It was odd that senior State Department officials planning a regime change in Ukraine looked to Vice President Biden “to midwife the thing” instead of their own boss, Secretary of State John Kerry. BIDEN’S BEHIND-THE-SCENES ROLE IN THE 2014 COUP REMAINED UNEXPLAINED AND LARGELY UNEXPLORED IN 2022, AS HE TOOK THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE TO WAR OVER A CRISIS FOR WHICH HE HELPED TO SET THE STAGE IN WAYS THAT HAD NEVER BEEN MADE PUBLIC. (footnote 5)
THE MAIDAN: UKRANIAN ULTRANATIONALISTS
Most American who are enraged by the Russian Invasion of Ukraine know nothing of the Maidan event nor the subsequent eight year war in the Donbas. In the hacked conversation above there is mention of “Parubiy and Tyahnybok”. Parubiy was leader of Right Sector and Tyahnybok was leader of Svoboda . Both parties are among the numerous groups of Neo-Nazis dedicated to the legacy of Stefan Bandera and are described in Oliver Stone’s production “ UKRAINE ON FIRE”. Besides the dramatic depiction of The Maidan, the movie discusses the history of Nazism in Ukraine. (footnote 6)
Henry Kissinger’s Observation: After the Maidan crisis, Henry Kissinger wrote an op-ed to the Washington Post. It is famous for the quotation “Demonizing Putin is not a foreign policy. It is an alibi for the absence of one.” What is more important are his prescient observations when he poses and answers the question “Crisis in Ukraine, How will it end?”. In my opinion this article is the lodestone to understanding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. (footnote 7)
THE END OF TRUST
After the American sponsored and Ukrainian Far Right coup d’etat that overthrew the Yanokivich government, Russia annexed Crimea and war broke out more than 9 years ago between Ukrainian nationalist and Russian Ukrainians in the Donbas which continues today, enhanced by the Russian invasion.
In the beginning there were attempts to reconcile both sides with the Minsk Accords guaranteed by Russia, France and Germany and ratified by the UN Security Council. Angela Markel, in a recent interview said it was a ruse to “buy time” to enable the buildup of the Ukrainian Military. This was just another broken agreement with Russia by the American lead West.
Added to this Minsk destruction of trust by the West, the Americans and their Allies broke all Security treaties made with Russia after the Helsinki Accord, and all but one Nuclear Arms Limitation Treaty agreements. The Kennan Observation had raised its ugly head again. By now who would expect the Russians to trust anything coming from the West?
PUTIN- A MAN TRUSTED
Shortly after the annexation of Crimea, I was on a tour of Russia with the Nation Magazine and I asked our guide what he thought of Vladimir Putin. He said, “one New Years Eve we were watching tv when suddenly President Yeltsin addressed us to announce he was stepping down and the new president is Vladimir Putin, the man behind me on the tv stage. We did not know anything about the man.” Yeltsin turned to leave the stage. Passing Putin, he said “take care of Russia.” At that time Russia was in deep trouble. The economy had tumbled and the country was at war in Chechnya.
How did Putin come to power? He was brought up in the tough streets of St Petersburg, a city whose citizens survived 900 days of siege against the Germans. His family pushed him to get a good education and to respect religion. He learned to speak German, had high marks in school and by luck he was accepted into the KGB school in Petersburg. He and his family moved to Dresden where he performed typical information gathering projects. He and his family had a comfortable life.
Suddenly the WALL came down. It was time to move back to Russia where things were not going to be as comfortable. Furthermore, it was the end of the KGB job. Life would be quite different for an ex KGB man.
Putin drove taxi, studied law at Leningrad State University, was respected by the mayor of Petersburg, his former law professor Anatoly Sobchak. Sobchak was the first democratically elected mayor of Petersburg. He asked Putin to join him. Putin was placed in charge of external relations where he did business with foreign businessmen and politicians.
Putin attained a reputation for getting the job done and was a man that could be trusted. The American Council in St Petersburg verified that in a statement. This enabled him to rise to a higher political level and a move to The Kremlin where he became head of intelligence services. Being noticed by Yeltsin he was eventually made President by Yeltsin because he was the only man he could trust.
The first day of his presidency he flew to Chechnya where he met with the Russian soldiers involved in a long, nasty war. He told them they had his total support. He had their backs.
The rest is a history of lifting the Russian people off the floor of the terrible decline due to communism, Western/oligarchical pirating of Russian assets and Western meddling in Russian political affairs. GDP growth has been steady with slight declines after Crimea sanctions and the current Ukraine sanctions. Putin enjoys an enormous popularity according to the polls of the Western respected Levada Center and others. (footnote 8 for this section)
PUTIN THE INSCRUTABLE DEVIL
Putin bashing has become a sport in the America which is a perfect example of “that deep-seated trait of American psychology which tends to make an inscrutable devil out of any external adversary. Here are examples of false Putin bashing. I have limited it to five.
“Putin is an imperialist and wants to recreate the old Soviet Union or the old Russian Empire. Conquering Ukraine is the first step”. According to John J Mersheimer “there is zero evidence to support this theory. Putin invaded Ukraine with 190,000 troops and there is no way he could conquer a country the size of Ukraine with this force.” (footnote 9). I might add that the Russians with 1.5 million troops in 1939 invaded Poland and were quickly defeated. Russia simply does not have the force to recreate the Russian Empire. The numbers flatly refute this."
“Putin does not want peace.” This is another false assertion. In order to stop the Ukrainian Civil War it was due to a Russian initiative that the Minsk Accords were negotiated, signed by both Ukrainian belligerents , guaranteed by Germany, France and Russia and ratified by the UN Security Council. Germany’s Merkel recently stated the West and Kiev had no intention of living up to this peace agreement.
“Putin’s invasion was unprovoked.” This is another highly spurious assertion, given the persecution of the Russian speakers in the Donbas from 2014 to 2022. The Russian language was forbidden by the Kiev government. The shelling in this conflict resulted in 14,500 casualties, mostly Russian speakers. In the week leading up to the invasion, Ukrainian shelling of Donets and Luganst civilians increased 20% with the Ukrainian objective to drive the Russian speakers over to Russia. Old men, women and children fled their homes to seek refuge in Russia. “Slava Ukraini!”
“Putin illegally invaded another country.” When Americans use this to bash Putin, they should be reminded of all the invasions they have been a part of THOUSAND OF MILES FROM THEIR BORDERS. Some have been listed earlier in this article in the discussion of Victoria Nuland. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine ON RUSSIA’S BORDER is justified by the legal argument of Preemptive Defense proffered by The George W Bush Administration who said that it was necessary to intervene to prevent Saddam Hussein from deploying weapons of mass destruction(WMD). They invaded knowing full well there were no (WMD). Preemptive strike was also justified in Israel’s Six Day War with the argument that Israel needed more space to better defend itself.
“Putin is a warmonger.” Putin, acting as a peacemaker, refused to vote in the Security Council for the bombing of Yugoslavia. Disregarding the lack of UN legality/International law, NATO ILLEGALLY carried out an aerial bombing campaign from 24 March 1999 to 10 June 1999.
RAYMOND ROBBINS REDUX
So where do we find the truth, not just group-think opinions?
We are reminded of Raymond Robbins’s advice: “I believe that when we understand what it is, when we know the facts behind it, when we do not libel it or slander it or do not loose our heads and become its advocates and defenders, and really know what the thing is, then we will serve our country and our time…..” Below are some suggestions, some from learned sources, which can enable someone to follow Robbins’ advice.
Free Press. These days it is a challenge to get to the real truth about any “inscrutable devil”. For an American to hear what the Russians are thinking and saying, you must view it through the biased screen of the Western press. An example of the disingenuous “free press attitude”in the West, is the banning of cable news network RT(Russia Today) because it is the “mouthpiece for Putin”. Take into consideration the connection that the New York Times and the Washington Post are mouthpieces for the current American administration and you have a hard time with the “RT issue”. Forget that RT was the second biggest cable news network in the world. Still, while traveling around the world in non-Western countries, I can watch RT in my hotel room along with CNN, BBC, SKY, Al Jazeera, CGTN( China) but not in my American or European hotel room. One can eschew the standard press, the so-called fourth estate and go to the fifth estate, the net, to find a plethora of varied opinions.
Stephen F. Cohen was one of the most noted Russian scholars in the world. Steve lived in Russia for years and was a friend of Gorbachev. During the Cold War he was a “détentist”, and an important voice for denuclearization. In recent times, as the Putin bashing began to build, he spoke out for renegotiation of our debunked treaties with Russia, warning us of the danger. He was scurrilously labeled a Putin apologist. I watched an interview of him on CNN where he was continually interrupted and talked over by Christiane Amanpour . Steve, always a gentleman, regretfully is no longer with us. His sagacity is sorely missed.
In the character of Steve Cohen, two scholars I would recommend are John J Mersheimer, distinguished professor from The University of Chicago and Jeffrey Sachs, distinguished professor from Columbia University. Neither one of them are Putin apologists. Mersheimer’s Cockefair Lecture is as an absolute “must see” by all Americans interested in what we are facing with the Russia-China tandem. (footnote 10)
Steven Cohen’s wife, Katrina vanden Heuvel, heads up The American Association of East-West Accord, an excellent website of various learned opinions. Katrina also wrote the preface to the booklet “ War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless War” by Medea Benjamin and Nicolas J.S. Davies, cited in The Maidan discussion in this study. This booklet is a “must” read on the current war.
Foreign Affairs. Even though they publish such “multi-polarists” as Mersheimer, it is inclined to the “globalist” narrative whereby the West and its values treat the whole world as a proper sphere for political influence. Robert Kagan, Victoria Nuland husband, is one of the apologists for “globalists” viewpoints. Kagan is a frequent contributor to the journal. Robbins would welcome all these viewpoints.
George WashingtonUniversity Elliot School of International Affairs. The University publishes a weekly on-line report “Johnson’s Russia List” which gives an update on twenty or more english language,journalistic articles from the World Press. (footnote 11)
For a European viewpoint there is: Richard Sakwa, Emeritus Professor at the University of Kent and has written: “Frontline Ukraine: Crisis on the Border” and “Putin Redux: Power and Contradiction in Contemporary Russia”. From University of South-Eastern Norway, there is Professor Glenn Diesen who appears on The Duran, a blog featuring Alexander Mercouris from London and the founder Alex Christoforou, a Greek Cypriot. An example of the level of dialogue on The Duran is a recent interview with former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl on “The Death of European Diplomacy.” (footnote 12)
Finally, it is worthwhile to reread Henry Kissinger’s 2014 Op-Ed to the Washington Post entitled “How the Ukrainian Crisis Ends” to see a world we wish we could return to if we had shared Kissinger’s truly Raymond Robbins insight. (footnote 13)
TO MY FELLOW AMERICANS
Half the world, BRICS+ Twenty, is moving away from America and the West. They do not see Russia and China as “inscrutable devils…”. They do not “Demonize Putin” as a foreign policy. They see through it all, and visualize Americans in the same way George F. Kennan called it out in 1958!!!! In a recent interview, Jeffrey Sacks recounted that “after the fall of the Soviet Union, American foreign aid to Africa fell to nothing. Washington just announced a new package for Africa”. Sacks asks:“Do you know why? One word: Cobalt. Cobalt is needed for electric cars and the Chinese are all over Africa.” Years ago they were all over Africa when I worked there to improve my business. It was astonishing. The Chinese had become the world’s masters at closing business. It is more than Cobalt for them. They are all about one thing…..making money. Not war.
UNDERSTANDING RUSSIA: THE LONG PATH TO DENUCLEARIZATION-Michael I. Basta
KNOWLEDGE IS POWER-Scott Ritter
NO NUKES-Humanity
FOOTNOTES
Slavic Studies Panel Addresses “Who Promised What to Whom on NATO Expansion?”
Sarotte, M. E. Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate. Yale University Press 2021. 549pp.
Containment Beyond the Cold War. How Washington Lost the Post Soviet war Peace M.E. Sarotte. Foreign Affairs, Novenber/December 2021
Benjamin, Medea and Davies, Nicolas J.S. “War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict” OR Books. 2022, 175p.
Stone, Oliver & Lopatonok, Igor. “Ukraine on Fire” Documentary Film. 2016 Another Way Productions. Available on Netflix, or stream at Plex
Kissinger, Henry A. “How the Ukraine Crisis Ends”. OP-ED. Washington Post, March 5th, 2014
Myers, Alfred Lee. The New Czar: The Rise and Reign of Vladimir Putin. Knopf. 592p, 2007
Cockefair Lecture Feb 23th 2023 John J Mearsheimer at The University of Missouri Kansas City
“Death of European Diplomacy.” Former Austrian Foreign Minister Karin Kneissl, Alexander Mercouris & Professor Glen Diesen. The Duran, March 11th, 2023
Kissinger, Ibid